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- Chinese Military Capabilities: China has a massive and overwhelming missile arsenal capable of pummeling Taiwan. Their substantial paratrooper force is specifically designed for a Taiwan invasion. While China might incur significant losses in an amphibious assault, the threat extends beyond countering with missiles from distant bases like Guam and Okinawa.
- U.S. Defensive Strategy: We do not believe the United States will fully deploy its Navy to defend Taiwan. Instead, it is more likely that anti-ship missiles would be launched from Guam and bases in the Philippines to counter any Chinese naval aggression.
- Potential Allies for China: In the event of a U.S. counterattack, we believe Russia and North Korea will likely defend China. More than likely, they would target Japanese and U.S. bases in Okinawa. The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un is significant, as Putin is particularly frustrated with South Korean arms sales to Poland. This situation is likely to escalate further.
- Strategic Naval Positioning: China appears to be positioning its navy to gain a strategic advantage in the Strait of Malacca in the event of a Taiwan invasion, aiming to control this critical maritime chokepoint.
