Macrofund analyzed the potential outcomes of the 2024 presidential election if Joe Biden does not run, focusing on key Democratic candidates against former President Donald Trump. Michelle Obama emerges as the strongest candidate, leading Trump 50% to 39% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, showing significant favorability in critical states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom also present competitive options, each with specific strengths in various swing states. Harris faces challenges with public perception similar to Biden. Whitmer shows mixed results in Michigan, sometimes leading Trump. Despite trailing Trump slightly, Newsom remains a viable contender due to his policies and recognition. High voter turnout in pivotal swing counties will be crucial for any Democratic nominee to secure victory in these battleground states.
Let’s break down how each candidate is performing nationwide:
Kamala Harris
Current Position: Vice President of the United States
Polling Data: Net approval rating of minus 16.8%; RCP Average: Trump leads Harris by 2 points (46% to 44%); Faces challenges in public perception and approval ratings
Odds of Being the Democratic Candidate if Biden Drops Out: 42%
Gretchen Whitmer
Current Position: Governor of Michigan
Polling Data: High favorability ratings in Michigan; In head-to-head polls against Trump: Trump trails Whitmer by 4 points (45% to 49%)
Odds of Being the Democratic Candidate if Biden Drops Out: 22%
Michelle Obama
Current Position: Former First Lady of the United States
Polling Data: High favorability ratings, 55.8% favorability in a YouGov poll; Hypothetical matchups suggest she could be competitive against Trump
Odds of Being the Democratic Candidate if Biden Drops Out: 17%
Gavin Newsom
Current Position: Governor of California
Polling Data: Trails Trump by 5 points in Glengariff Group (Michigan) poll; Mixed results in national and swing state polls; Lost debate to Ron DeSantis, impacting his national perception
Odds of Being the Democratic Candidate if Biden Drops Out: 10%
Let’s break down how each candidate is performing in these key states:
Pennsylvania
Kamala Harris
Polling Data: Harris trails Trump by around 2 points (46% to 44%) according to RealClearPolitics. A Quinnipiac poll finds Harris shares similar unfavorable ratings as Biden, impacting her competitiveness in the state.
Key Issues: Economic stability, healthcare access, suburban vote.
Counties to Watch: Bucks County (4% of state population, swing).
Gretchen Whitmer
Polling Data: Whitmer performs slightly better than Harris against Trump, often leading in various polls.
Key Issues: Economic concerns, healthcare access, suburban vote.
Counties to Watch: Bucks County (4% of state population, swing).
Michelle Obama
Polling Data: Michelle Obama leads Trump 50% to 39% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Key Issues: Economic concerns, healthcare access, suburban vote.
Counties to Watch: Bucks County (4% of state population, swing).
Gavin Newsom
Polling Data: Newsom trails Trump by a small margin in Pennsylvania.
Key Issues: Economic concerns, healthcare access, suburban vote.
Counties to Watch: Bucks County (4% of state population, swing).
Michigan
Kamala Harris
Polling Data: Harris performs similarly to Biden, trailing Trump slightly. Polling by Quinnipiac shows Harris struggling in Michigan.
Key Issues: Auto industry policies, urban turnout, healthcare, and education.
Counties to Watch: Macomb County (8% of state population, swing), Kent County (6% of state population, swing).
Gretchen Whitmer
Polling Data: Conflicting results show Whitmer both leading and trailing Trump. The Glengariff Group poll shows Whitmer leading Trump 49% to 45%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates she would receive fewer votes than Trump.
Key Issues: Auto industry, urban turnout, healthcare, and education.
Counties to Watch: Macomb County (8% of state population, swing), Kent County (6% of state population, swing).
Michelle Obama
Polling Data: Obama performs well, often leading Trump in Michigan.
Key Issues: Auto industry, urban turnout, healthcare, and education.
Counties to Watch: Macomb County (8% of state population, swing), Kent County (6% of state population, swing).
Gavin Newsom
Polling Data: Newsom performs similarly to Biden in Michigan.
Key Issues: Auto industry, urban turnout, healthcare, and education.
Counties to Watch: Macomb County (8% of state population, swing), Kent County (6% of state population, swing).
Wisconsin
Kamala Harris
Polling Data: Close race, similar to Biden’s performance, as per Quinnipiac University.
Key Issues: Agriculture, education, healthcare access.
Counties to Watch: Brown County (3% of state population, swing), Racine County (3% of state population, swing).
Gretchen Whitmer
Polling Data: Whitmer performs well in Wisconsin, showing a close race against Trump.
Key Issues: Agriculture, education, healthcare access.
Counties to Watch: Brown County (3% of state population, swing), Racine County (3% of state population, swing).
Michelle Obama
Polling Data: Obama leads Trump in several polls in Wisconsin.
Key Issues: Agriculture, education, healthcare access.
Counties to Watch: Brown County (3% of state population, swing), Racine County (3% of state population, swing).
Gavin Newsom
Polling Data: Newsom performs similarly to Biden in Wisconsin.
Key Issues: Agriculture, education, healthcare access.
Counties to Watch: Brown County (3% of state population, swing), Racine County (3% of state population, swing).
Florida
Kamala Harris
Polling Data: Trump leads Harris by a narrow margin in Florida.
Key Issues: Immigration, senior citizen issues, environmental policies.
Counties to Watch: Miami-Dade County (13% of state population, swing), Hillsborough County (6% of state population, swing), Duval County (5% of state population, swing).
Gretchen Whitmer
Polling Data: Whitmer performs better than Harris but still trails Trump in Florida.
Key Issues: Immigration, senior citizen issues, environmental policies.
Counties to Watch: Miami-Dade County (13% of state population, swing), Hillsborough County (6% of state population, swing), Duval County (5% of state population, swing).
Michelle Obama
Polling Data: Leads Trump 50% to 39% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Key Issues: Immigration, senior citizen issues, environmental policies.
Counties to Watch: Miami-Dade County (13% of state population, swing), Hillsborough County (6% of state population, swing), Duval County (5% of state population, swing).
Gavin Newsom
Polling Data: Newsom trails Trump by a small margin in Florida.
Key Issues: Immigration, senior citizen issues, environmental policies.
Counties to Watch: Miami-Dade County (13% of state population, swing), Hillsborough County (6% of state population, swing), Duval County (5% of state population, swing).
Arizona
Kamala Harris
Polling Data: Harris trails Trump slightly in Arizona.
Key Issues: Immigration and border security, water rights, healthcare.
Counties to Watch: Maricopa County (60% of state population, swing), Pinal County (5% of state population, swing).
Gretchen Whitmer
Polling Data: Whitmer trails Trump by a small margin in Arizona.
Key Issues: Immigration and border security, water rights, healthcare.
Counties to Watch: Maricopa County (60% of state population, swing), Pinal County (5% of state population, swing).
Michelle Obama
Polling Data: Leads Trump in several polls in Arizona.
Key Issues: Immigration and border security, water rights, healthcare.
Counties to Watch: Maricopa County (60% of state population, swing), Pinal County (5% of state population, swing).
Gavin Newsom
Polling Data: Newsom trails Trump slightly in Arizona.
Key Issues: Immigration and border security, water rights, healthcare.
Counties to Watch: Maricopa County (60% of state population, swing), Pinal County (5% of state population, swing).
Georgia
Kamala Harris
Polling Data: Competitive, with Trump having a slight edge in Georgia.
Key Issues: Voting rights, economic growth, social justice.
Counties to Watch: Cobb County (6% of state population, swing), Gwinnett County (7% of state population, swing).
Gretchen Whitmer
Polling Data: Whitmer performs similarly to Harris, showing a competitive race against Trump in Georgia.
Key Issues: Voting rights, economic growth, social justice.
Counties to Watch: Cobb County (6% of state population, swing), Gwinnett County (7% of state population, swing).
Michelle Obama
Polling Data: Performs well, often leading Trump in Georgia.
Key Issues: Voting rights, economic growth, social justice.
Counties to Watch: Cobb County (6% of state population, swing), Gwinnett County (7% of state population, swing).
Gavin Newsom
Polling Data: Newsom trails Trump by a small margin in Georgia.
Key Issues: Voting rights, economic growth, social justice.
Counties to Watch: Cobb County (6% of state population, swing), Gwinnett County (7% of state population, swing).
