Since the State of the Union address, Polymarket odds of the United States striking Iran have increased by roughly 40%. The probability now sits at 59% by March 31 and 69% by the end of June.
Quick recap. Bitcoin has had a solid rally, up over 6%. The S&P 500 rebounded but did not make new highs. Small caps did not follow. Gold and silver rose. The euro ticked up against the yen and aussie and cable rallied.
