Pessimistic Bitcoin
Our outlook for Bitcoin is increasingly pessimistic as we anticipate heightened volatility with the approaching election. The current implied volatility of 54.95 seems notably low, given the significant events on the horizon. The expected halving rally hasn’t materialized, and the supply above $73k is concerning. With gold reaching an all-time high above $2,500, Bitcoin’s position below $59k is particularly troubling.
Bearish Sentiment on Ethereum
Ethereum’s market performance has been disappointing, especially following the recent ETF approvals. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs have seen significant outflows, and the asset is down nearly 30% since the spot approval in July 2024. This bearish price action leads us to recommend shorting the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate, with an expectation of a decline toward the 0.04000 area.
Pessimistic Bitcoin: Mixed Outlook for Altcoins with Select Opportunities
The outlook for altcoins remains mixed. Solana likely peaked, though there’s growing interest in alternative ecosystems like Polygon, which is seeing inflows.
Focus on Utility, Exit Meme Coins
We believe that cryptocurrencies will maintain their value with utility. We recommend exiting meme coins.
